It's coming up round 12 of the 23 round AFL season and I've been holding off for ages to report back on my start of year predictions. There's still plenty of footy to be played and a lot of question marks over the performance of a larger than usual number of teams. So here goes the mid season report....
Prediction: Adelaide, Hawthorn or Sydney as prime Premiership contenders
So far I've been spot on with this one. Both Hawks and Swans had unimpressive but effective starts and now look extremely dominant coming into the second half. As much as I hate Sydney they look the most potent on field but either team could win it on the day. They've already played each other in Rnd 7 and Hawks had their number that day. Adelaide also had a bumpy start but seemed to get their shit together around Rnd 6 (loss to Hawks but they played well and went on to string more wins together after that). As of the last couple of weeks their form has just gone out the window. They sit 10th on the ladder and were completely smashed off the park by Sydney last round. Their big guns need to step up.
Prediction: GWS and GCS improve with final prospects by 2014
Again, spot on. GWS are still winless but are winning more quarters of footy as the year goes on. They also have a higher percentage than Melbourne despite being last on the ladder on points. GCS sit at 12th on the ladder with a win/loss record of 5 and 6. Both teams have actually put in a scare into a couple of the top teams, matching them and even leading for parts of games but falling off towards the end. With more conditioning that will be a thing off the past. Looking at GCS run home, the majority of games are against lower teams. Could they even nip at the bottom of the 8 for finals this year? We all like an underdog so I want to see it happen. Either way, next year will be very very interesting.
Fence sitting: Carlton may or may not improve depending on if the players can get motivated.
Numbers-wise they're doing slightly better than last year but there's still a lot of critics that say the comparison to the coach-firing performances of last year are still too close. I think they look better on field and their potential is looking up but hey still aren't the dominating force they need to be. They're sitting at 7 on the ladder but could easily be bumped out. I'm still on the fence as to whether they suck or not :p
Prediction: Brisbane, Essendon or North Melbourne will improve and play finals
I predicted 1 or maybe 2 of these teams would play finals. Essendon are sitting up 4th on the ladder despite the still ongoing drug investigation in which neither the players nor the public are any wiser on the fate of the club or its personnel. It was said in the media that the scandal seems to have united the players and it would seem the on field performances has confirmed this. They'll play finals. Brisbane have completely bombed with only 3 wins for the season and with coaches contract set to end at the end of the season there is obviously a lot of speculation over whether they'll renew. Might be time for a rebuild of both team and staff. North Melbourne would have to be the most frustrating team to be a fan of right now. They've won 4 matches and of the 7 they've lost, 3 of them have been by less than 4 points. The team often has a lead going into the final quarter only to lose the match, sometimes in rather dramatic fashion. It's like they have the yips. They definitely have skill as they've taken it to some of the top teams but they have something going on, either team culture or mental preparedness, that means they just can't get over the line.
Prediction: Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Richmond are exciting and 2 of these teams should play finals
Kinda tanked this prediction. Fremantle are sitting 5th and playing solid footy with a very high work rate. They deserve the position and should make the finals very interesting. Richmond and Bulldogs have both played exciting footy but Bulldogs have very little in the way of consistency and are sitting on only 3 wins at 14th on the ladder. Richmond are also inconsistent but have wrestled up 6 wins putting them just outside the 8. I still enjoy watching them both play when they are switched on as they play a nice brand of footy but they'll need to put in a lot more effort to be contenders. Richmond's season isn't over yet but they will need to improve if they want to make their way into the 8. Bulldogs should be looking to get some experience under the belt to play better in 2014.
Prediction: Port Adelaide and Melbourne will continue to suck
...and they do. Melbourne have had only 1 win against GWS and continue to get thoroughly embarassed on a weekly basis. The club has been out of form for the better part of a decade, the shit hit the fan some time ago and it's not just a matter of seeing how many people were standing in front of the fan to figure out who stays and who goes at all levels of the club. Just before publishing this post, the President of Melbourne resigned. Port Adelaide have made a number of changes during the off season including President and Coach which resulting in a unbeaten run of 5 games at the start of the season. They back it up with 5 losses in a row and now again are mentioned in hushed tones by the footy community. I suspect things will get worse for them before they get better but they won't get anywhere near the depths Melbourne have discovered.
Prediction: Geelong, St Kilda, West Coast, Collingwood will need to rebuild but may pad out the 8
West Coast and Collingwood are both having a rough season. They're both in the 8 but injuries have tested their depth and discovered it rather shallow. As such they're in a bit of a win some/lose some holding pattern. If the likes of Richmond and Nth Melbourne can get their shit together we could see them push these teams out of finals contention. St Kilda have bombed out totally and sit 16th on the ladder. Geelong are the real surprise. They're sitting atop the ladder and look very very dangerous. Somehow they're managing to rebuild while playing amazing footy with their newest inclusions stepping up almost immediately and with their veterans turning back the clock and playing with amazing vigor. It's a real credit to the player management group at that club and I suspect it will be a model a lot of team will try to replicate over the next decade.
So all in all, not too shabby. I hedged a few bets of course but really only Geelong and Adelaide have put me off whack. Will recap again at the end of the season to see how I fare over the 2nd half.
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